Massive day of racing this Saturday with the group and listed races in Sydney & Melbourne, will be previewing the Group 1 Sir Rupert Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield also the Group 1 George Main Stakes (1600m) & Group 2 The Shorts (1100m) at Randwick, view my full analysis for the three races and betting strategy below thanks to our sponsor Topsport  : www.topsport.com.au

Current Results || 571 Units Outlayed || 722 Unit Returned || 151 Units Profit || 111 out of 115 Successful Lays ||

SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 1 3YO+ Open Handicap over 1400m.


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Genuine

Expecting a genuine early speed with the likes of Streets Of Avalon [14], Groundswell [9] , Aysar [13] & Buffalo River [4] all rolling forward to be prominent early, of those will be Behemoth [3], Beau Rossa [1], Regardsmaree [1] & Probabeel [2]


Top Pick

Going with the form out of the Group 1 Memsie Stakes here, feel the Will Clarken trained 5. BEAU ROSSA will turn the tables on Behemoth from when they meet last start, the key here is Beau Rossa gets a 3.5kg weight swing in his advantage which I feel will be the difference, the weight differential combined with the facet the gelding will do no work early from barrier 1 to stalk the speed will make him very hard to beat.


Danger

Have to have the consistent 1. BEHEMOTH as a big danger to the top pick, the gelding beat home Beau Rossa last start having to sit wide throughout and still managed to kick clear at the top of the straight before fighting on strongly to the line,  love that the horse has that will to win at the business end of races and from barrier 3 Craig Williams will have him prominent to the pace throughout.


Lay

Taking on the Jamie Richards trained 2. PROBABEEL after winning the Cockram Stakes when resuming last start over 1200m, just feel the form out of the Group 1 Memsie Stakes is a few lengths stronger than the Group 3 Cockram, that combined with the fact that Beau Rossa & Behemoth have the run over 1400m under the belt the mare will find it hard to match it with them in a high pressure race, predicting a drift before jump time away from her current market price.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 1. Behemoth (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 5. Beau Rossa (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 2. Probabeel ($7.00 and below)
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GEORGE MAIN STAKES ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 1 3YO+ Open Weight For Age over 1600m.


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Average

Expecting an average early speed with Riodini [1] going to the lead from the inside draw with Kolding [4] sitting outside of the pace, behind the front two Verry Elleegant [2] & Shout The Bar [3] get the run of the race stalking throughout.


Top Pick

Very hard to go past the Chris Waller trained 7. VERRY ELLEEGANT after an impressive return to racing in the Winx Stakes last start at Randwick, had to sit wide throughout and still fought on very strongly to the line to only get run down late by Mo’unga who has franked the form since running second in the Group 1 Makybe Diva behind Incentivise, draws to get a perfect run stalking the speed throughout with James McDoanld on board.


Danger

The James Cummings trained 3. CASCADIAN appeals at an each way price, expecting a much improved run here third up after a disappointing run when heavily backed last start in the Chelmsford Stakes, interesting to note the gelding has not won from seven second up runs and last preparation won the Doncaster Mile at his third run so this shapes up to be his peak performance, will settle back off the speed and will be savaging the line late.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 7. Verry Elleegant (3 Unit Win Bet)last prep
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Back 3. Cascadian (1 Unit Win Bet)
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THE SHORTS ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 2 3YO+ Open Set Weights over 1100m.


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Fast

Expecting a fast early speed with Eduardo [9] coming across from out wide to fight it out early with Nature Strip [1] for the early lead, off those two will be Adelong [6], Lost And Running [7], Wild Ruler [8] & Rothfire [5].


Top Pick

Just can’t go past the dominant last start winner and arguably the best sprinter in the country 1. NATURE STRIP for the Waller and McDonald combination, the win in the Concorde over 1000m was super impressive going straight to the front and when asked to sprint quickly put a gap in them before cruising to the line late, was originally worried about the early speed in the race with Eduardo in the race but feel with bigger races ahead the Joe Pride stable won’t want to engage in an early speed battle with Nature Strip first up, if Nature Strip can roll to the lead will prove very tough to run down out to 1100m.


Danger

Love the way the John O’Shea trained gelding 7. LOST AND RUNNING has prepped up for this race first up and appeals at the current market price around the $9 mark, was a dominant winner of his last two races last preparation highlighted by the win in the Listed Luskin Star before going out for a spell, the two trials leading in indicate the galloper has improved sharply away from the track, could not have been impressive in the latest trial over 1000m at Randwick sitting on the speed and not getting out of first gear through the line, maps to get a perfect run in behind the speed and will be the one finishing off strongly.


Lay

Have to take on the Robert Heathcote trained 5. ROTHFIRE resuming off a terrible injury in the Group 1 Golden Rose last preparation and not having raced in over 357 days, the jump outs and trials have been impressive leading in but nothing can match the high pressure tempo this race presents, if the gelding can win this race up against the best sprinters in the land it will have to go down as one of the best training performances of all time.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 1. Nature Strip (3 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 7. Lost And Running (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 5. Rothfire ($12.00 and below)
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