Huge day of racing this Saturday with Group & Listed races throughout the day, will be covering the Group 1 Australian Cup from Flemington along with the Group 1 Randwick Guineas & Group 1 Canterbury Stakes at Randwick, view my full analysis for the three races and betting strategy below thanks to sponsors Topsport  : www.topsport.com.au
Current Results || 145 Units Outlayed || 221.8 Units Returned || 76.8 Units Profit || 42 out of 45 Successful Lays ||

AUSTRALIA CUP ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 1 3YO+ Weight For Age over 2000m


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Genuine

Expecting genuine early speed throughout with Homesman [14], Best Of Days [17], Miss Siska [5] & Paradee [1] all looking to lead or be prominent in the run, San Hulberto [6], Steel Prince [11], Shard Ambition [2] & Platoon will settle just behind the pace throughout.


Top Pick

The Chris Waller trained 11. SHARED AMBITION looks perfectly placed here third up out to 2000m, has run very well at both start this preparation proving too strong resuming over 1600m at Randwick before hitting the line strongly in the Group 2 Peter Young over 1800m at Caulfield, looks set to peak third up and maps to get a perfect run just behind the speed from barrier  2 with Mark Zahra retaining the ride, the gelding will also appreciate the step up to 2000m.


Danger

The Danny O’Brien trained 17. PARADEE has been flying this preparation recording wins in her past three starts highlighted by taking out the Group 2 Peter Young last start at Caulfield, the mare sat on the speed before fighting on strongly to the line indicating she is suited getting out to 2000m, maps to get the run of the race stalking the speed throughout with the in form Craig Williams taking the ride.


Lay

Very happy to be against the Hayes & Dabernig trained favourite 3. FIFTY STARS third up this time in, he hasn’t won a race in 364 days and with a “get back” style racing pattern he will be giving the likes of Paradee & Shared Ambition a big start coming into the straight.  I feel he offers no value in current markets and expecting a drift come jump time.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 11. Shard Ambition (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 17. Paradee (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 3. Fifty Stars ($6.00 and below)
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RANDWICK GUINEAS ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 1 3YO Set Weights over 1600m


Track Bias

Expecting a slight bias to be off the fence in run and in lanes 3+ in the straight.


Early Speed 

Genuine

Expecting a genuine early speed with noted front runner Peltzer [13] rolling across to take up the lead from out wide, Marsannay [1], Here To Shock [7] & Prime Star [11] will be prominent when they settle in the run. North Pacific [4], Harmony Rose [9] & Lions Roar [10] will be just off those.


Top Pick

Very keen on last start winner 1. AEGON who was totally dominant when taking out the Group 2 Hobartville at his first Australian start, the gelding sat just off the speed and displayed a sharp sprint coming away form the field on the line indicating he will have no issue replicating the figures produced last start stepping out to 1600m, he will get back in the field with Hugh Bowman retaining the ride but with a predicted genuine pace throughout he will get every chance to finish over the top of them once again.


Danger

One galloper that appeals at each way odds is the Team Hawkes trained 3. NORTH PACIFIC who looks perfectly placed third up and finally gets out to 1600m after hitting the line well both starts this preparation, was caught flat footed when the sprint went on last start in the Hobartville before balancing up late to hit the line strongly behind Aegon, the in form James McDonald retains the ride and from barrier 4 can settle just behind the speed and saved for one sprint at them late.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 1. Aegon (3 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 3. North Pacific (1 Unit Win Bet)
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CANTERBURY STAKES ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 1 3YO+ Weight For Age over 1300m


Track Bias

Expecting a slight bias to be off the fence in run and in lanes 3+ in the straight.


Early Speed 

Genuine

Expecting a genuine speed with Dreamforce [5] & Samadoubt [6] fighting it out early to find the front, Mizzy [1] & Savatiano [3] draw to get the run of the race stalking the speed throughout.


Top Pick

Feel the value in current markets is the last start winner 7. MASKED CRUSADER from the Hakes stable, loved the way the gelding resumed taking out the Group 3 Southern Cross Stakes over 1200m running right through the line late in slick late sectionals, suited out to 1300m and can settle just off the genuine early tempo that is predicted with the in form Tommy Berry retaining the ride.


Danger

The James Cummings trained 8. SAVATIANO was dominant when taking out the Group 2 Expressway Stakes sitting just off the speed before unleashing a very quick final 600m coming away from the field on the line, has been given a soft trial leading in and maps perfectly from barrier 3 to stalk the speed with Hugh Bowman retaining the ride, if able to reproduce the the figures from the last start win over 1300m will prove very hard to run down.


Lay

Taking on the current race favourite 1. BIVOUAC from the James Cummings stable, just feel the run in the Lightning Stakes when resuming last start was disappointing and that combined with the fact he now has to go from 1000m to 1300m second up against a quality group of gallopers the current market price is a huge risk.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 7. Masked Crusader (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 8. Savatiano (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 1. Bivouac ($3.50 and below)
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