Big day of racing coming up this Saturday at Flemington and will be previewing the following races for followers, Mumm Mahogany Challenge Final (2500m) & Listed Winter Championship Series Final (1600m), view my full analysis for the three races and betting strategy below thanks to our sponsor Topsport  : www.topsport.com.au 

Current Results || 650 Units Outlayed || 850.3 Units Returned || 200.3 Units Profit || 160 out of 170 Successful Lays ||

RACE 5:  MUMM MAHOGANY CHALLENGE FINAL ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY : (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

3YO Open Handicap over 2500m.


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Average

Expecting an average early speed with Texas Tea [5] & Phere The Ex [8] rolling forward to contest the lead, off the leading pair Bay Of Kiel [3] & Rock Up [2] will enjoy soft runs throughout.


Top Pick

Very keen on the Maher & Eustace trained 1. TEXAS TEA coming off a dominant win over 2000m last start at the track, the gelding sat just off the speed and displayed a sharp turn of foot running right through the line indicating the step out to 2500m will not be an issue, with a lack of early speed in the race I feel connections will attempt to lead or if something else decides to take it up can take a sit behind with the in form Jye McNeil on board.


Danger

The Busuttin & Young trained 5. SHADOW HAWK appeals at an each way price in current markets, got too far off the speed last start over 2080m at Cranbourne making up many lengths late recording the clear quickest late sectionals of the race, suited out to 2500m for the first time and drops 4kg from his last start performance.


Lay

Taking on the Hayes trained 3. PHERE THE EX after getting very possible chance last start stalking the speed and not able to get the job done, has now recorded 1 win from 10 career starts which is a concern and expecting a severe drift in price come jump time, has also drawn very awkwardly in barrier 8 and will need luck going forward or getting taken back in the field.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 1. Texas Tea(2 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 5. Shadow Hawk (0.5 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 3. Phere The Ex (Bet to Profit 1 Unit)
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RACE 8: LISTED WINTER CHALLENGE SERIES FINAL ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY : (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Listed Open Handicap over 1600m.


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Genuine

Expecting a genuine early speed with Too Close To The Sun [7] rolling forward to take up the running with Tuvalu [18] working across from out wide to sit outside of the speed, So Si Bon [12] & Edison [10] draw to get soft runs in behind the leading pair.


Top Pick

Just cannot go past the consistent 12. TUVALU with the gelding producing clearly superior figures into the race, last two starts have been strong performances highlighted by the latest over 1630m at the track sitting just behind the speed before displaying a sharp turn of foot late to beat home the talented Visinari, at peak fitness now and from the wide draw can work across to make his own luck outside of the leader.


Danger

The Jarrod Austin trained 5. LOOKS LIKE ELVIS appeals at the $7 mark in the current market, was an outstanding two starts back when resuming over 1400m at the track where the gelding sat back in the run before savaging the line late coming away from the field on the line, got too far back last start in the Civic Stakes before once again hitting the line powerfully, he is now at peak fitness third up and will love getting out to the 1600m for the first time this preparation.


Lay

Taking on the in form 15. SIR DAVY from the red hot Maher & Eustace stable at the current market price around the $6.00 mark, enjoyed a soft run last start before running on well late to get beaten 3.2 lengths by top pick Tuvalu over 1630m, just feel the gelding will not find the required improvement between runs to turn the table on that galloper, also drawing barrier 1 will be a big disadvantage for a galloper that is slowly away and could get buried back on the rails needing a lot of luck in the straight.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 12. Tuvalu (2 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 5. Looks Like Elvis (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 15. Sir Davy (Bet to Profit 1 Unit)
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