Big day of racing this Saturday and will be focusing on three races at Eagle Farm, will be covering the Group 2 Brisbane Cup , Group 1 JJ Atkins & Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap, view my full analysis for the three races and betting strategy below thanks to our sponsor Topsport  : www.topsport.com.au

Current Results || 420 Units Outlayed || 513.5 Units Returned || 93.5 Units Profit || 90 out of 95 Successful Lays ||

BRISBANE CUP ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 2 Open Handicap over 3200m


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Average

Expecting an average early speed with a lack of speed in the small field, Knights Order [5] will roll forward to take up the running with Rondinella [6] sitting outside of the pace, Brimham Rocks [1] & Carif [2] will enjoy a nice run stalking the speed throughout.


Top Pick

Small field over the 3200m with two clear standouts in the current markets, very keen on the John O’Shea trained 3. RONDINELLA getting back out in trip, the mare ran a huge race in the Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) two starts back hitting the line strongly late, she was then given a short freshen up into the last start effort in the Group 3 Premiers Cup (2400m) at Eagle Farm where she settled along way off the speed before savaging the line late, gets the services of Glen Boss and can settle closer to the speed than in previous starts in the small field.


Danger

The main danger to the top pick 4. KNIGHTS ORDER was a dominant winner when up in trip last start over the 2400m in the Winter Cup, the gelding sat on speed and showed a nice turn of foot running right through the line indicating the step up in trip won’t be an issue, with a lack of early speed in the race Tim Clark can take him straight to the front and able to dictate the pace to suit.


Lay

Happy to oppose the Peter & Paul Snowden trained 1. CARIF after running well last start in the Premiers Cup over 2400m, the concerning part of the performance is he was only fair through the line and now has to step up to 3200m against a couple of smart stayers, feel the gelding wont have the required improvement between runs to match it with the top pick and danger.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 3. Rondinella (2 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 4. Knights Order (2 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 1. Carif ($5.00 and below)
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JJ ATKINS ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 1 2YO Open Set Weights over 1600m.


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Genuine

Expecting a genuine early speed with Volcanic Rock [6] & Blushing Tycoon [12] going forward to fight it out for the front, off those two will be Converge [5], Overpass [3], Cape Breton [10] & Tiger Of Malay [11] trying to find their spots early.


Top Pick

Very keen on the Waterhouse & Bott trained 2. CONVERGE after an impressive run last start in the Sires Produce over 1400m, the gelding sat a mile off the speed before balancing up in the straight to hit the line in the clear quickest late sectionals of the race indicating the 1600m will be ideal, from barrier 5 can settle just behind the speed with the in form Tim Clark retaining the ride.


Danger

The Richard & Michael Freedman last start winner 1. TIGER OF MALAY appeals here at an each way price, won nicely second up last start over the 1400m in the Sires Produce making a sustained sprint from along way out and fighting on strongly late running right through the line, strips fitter now third up and if able to get some luck early to find cover in the run he will be the one flying home late.


Lay

Very happy to be against the Maher & Eustace trained maiden 5. PORT LOUIS after running well in the Sire Produce behind Tiger Of Malay, feel the galloper had every chance last start and didn’t hit the line as strongly as the top two picks, that combined with the fact he has drawn very awkwardly in barrier 13 he might have to get too far back in the run and not able to bridge the gap.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 2. Converge (2 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 1. Tiger Of Malay (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Lay 5. Port Louis ($6.00 and below)
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STRADBROKE HANDICAP ANALYSIS & BETTING STRATEGY (CURRENT MARKET)

Distance & Class

Group 1 3YO+ Open Handicap over 1400m.


Track Bias

Expecting an even track with all runners getting their chance dependent on individual race pace.


Early Speed 

Fast

Expecting a fast early speed with Savatoxl [13], Apache Chase [7] & Emerald Kingdom [10] all going forward to try and find the front, off those three Master Jamie [6] & Olmedo [18] will enjoy the run of the race.


Top Pick

Very even field of gallopers to tackle the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap with most of the field having the required form to take it out, have settled on the impressive last start winner 11. VEGA ONE from the in form Tony Gollan stable, the gelding did not get any luck in the straight until around the 200m mark where she then exploded late to win coming away from the field indicating the 1400m is ideal, has drawn nicely in barrier 2 and will enjoy a nice run one off the fence just off the pace.


Danger

The Desleigh Forster trained 18. APACHE CHASE continues to run well this preparation and looks set to peak here, led at a solid tempo throughout last start in the Group 3 Fred Best Classic getting the job done over boom galloper Ayrton, staying at 1400m suits and drops 7.5kg off that last start performance which will enable jockey Jim Byrne to lead and give them something to chase.


BETTING STRATEGY

Back 11. Vega One (1 Unit Win Bet)
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Back 18. Apache Chase (1 Unit Win Bet)
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